2020-04-01 つまり、新型コロナウイルスは、『みみっちく感染させることには興味がなく、ドカンと感染させることが大好き』という、山師的な性質があるのです。 [長年日記]


People who write "I could understand it well. Read this in detail" on SNS, etc.,

と書く人は、多分、『よく分かっていない』 ―― と思っています。

probably could not understand it well.


"There is a phrase that "humans can understand when they can explain", however, "


I think

「人間は、説明可能な状態になると、誰かにしゃべるたくなる ―― たとえそれが迷惑であったとしても」

"Humans want to talk to someone when they can explain, even if it's annoying."




I read the presentation sheets whose title is

"The Concept of measures for COVID-19"

というプレゼン資料を読んで、ようやく「クラスター」と、その「撲滅作戦」の意義を、理解できました ――

Finally, I understood the significance of the "cluster" and its "eradication strategy"


So please read this in detail"


(The end)



Well, if I keep it as it is (end), I will try to explain it because someone is likely to be beaten (I have about 2 people).


In conclusion, the new coronavirus is an abnormal virus.



Basically, the basic reproduction factor (R0) is simply "how many infected people from one person."

R0 = 2 なら、「1人の感染者から、平均2人の感染者が発生する」になり、いずれパンデミック(制御不能)になります。

If R0 = 2, then "one infected person produces an average of two infected people" and eventually a pandemic (out of control) occurs.

R0 = 1 なら、「1人の感染者から、平均1人の感染者が発生する」になり、流行にはなりませんが、撲滅もしません。

If R0 = 1, then "one infected person produces an average of one infected person", which is not an pandemic but does not eradicate.

R0 = 0.5 なら、「1人の感染者から、平均0.5人の感染者が発生する」になり、撲滅します。

If R0 = 0.5, "one infected person will produce an average of 0.5 infected people" which eradicates.

で、これを見ると、R0 > 1 なら制御不能になるのですが、新型コロナウイルスは R0 = 2.5 くらいと言われています。

So, we will lose control if R0 > 1, however it is said that the new coronavirus is about R0 = 2.5.

じゃあ、もうダメじゃん? ―― と思うのですが、ここに「新型コロナウイルスは変態」が効いてくるのです。

Then, isn't it already finished? ―― you may think, but here the "new coronavirus is abnormal" comes into effect.


In conclusion, the new coronavirus is hardly infected on an individual basis



(This only explains the contents of the material) If there are five infected people, A, B, C, D, E(Ebata),


There is a tendency that "Only E (Ebata) will infect 12 people at a stretch" even though no secondary infection has occurred from A, B, C, D.


In other words, the new coronavirus has the characteristic of a valet, saying, "they are not interested in small infecting, but they love mass infecting very much"


The result of this “mass infection” is a “cluster”.

つまり、『みみっちい感染』を無視しても、『ドカンと感染させる』クラスターを完全に管理して、それを各個撃破し続ければ、R0 < 1 に持ち込むことが可能である、ということです。

In other words, even if we ignore "small Infection", if we completely manage the "mass infection" cluster and continue to destroy each one, we can bring it to R0 <1.


(To be continued)

2020-04-02 今、これから発生する数万人規模の死体収容所を作っている ―― って、どこの世界線(ディストピア)の話? と聞きたくなります [長年日記]


(Continuation from yesterday)


After all, "If you don't get together, you can't create a cluster."


And so far, in Japan, this "cluster crushing" is in a marginally effective range.


However, in Japan, this "cluster crushing" seems to be reaching its limit.


This is "we cannot know the route of infection."


By the way, as you know, in Europe and the United States, it is too late to leave the "cluster crushing" phase.

今、これから発生する数万人規模の死体収容所を作っている ―― って、どこの世界線(ディストピア)の話? と聞きたくなります

Now, they are building tens of thousands of corpses in the future. I want to ask what the world line (dystopia) is.



From a "cluster crushing" perspective, refraining from schools, companies, gatherings, and events is an optimal strategy (if you ignore the economics of an individual).


However, persons who "are going to the red light district at night" while restraining schools, companies, gatherings, and events,


"Do you have a brain?"


I do not understand them at all.



Therefore, I would like to propose a proposal to prevent clusters while maintaining economic activity at a reasonable level.


"Absolute ban on voice communication"



- You should not speak anyone at any place.


- All communication is carried out using only real-time text messages such as SNS while maintaining a certain distance (a few meters).


- If you can't use a smartphone, talk on the message board.


- If a voice conversation is absolutely necessary, you can use a phone or telephone conference.


This is currently being implemented by many companies.


If this condition is fulfilled, I am willing to resume bar, cabaret club and maid cafe.



By the way,


The Ebata family once went to a maid cafe in Akihabara.


While in the queue, the whole family had turned pale due to discomfort and lack of oxygen.


When I proposed "withdrawal," the whole family agreed one second later and broke out of the store five seconds later.


At that time, the illusion of "maid cafe" that appeared in Steins Gate was completely destroyed in me.


Restless talk


(To be continued)

2020-04-03 ■居酒屋では、十分に席を離して、「手話」でクダを巻き、「手話」で上司の悪口を言いあう [長年日記]


(Continuation from yesterday)



- 接客側(ホスト)と顧客(ゲスト)が別の席に座り、両者はスマホを使って、テキストで会話する(音声電話も原則禁止)

-The reception side (host) and the customer (guest) sit in different seats, and both use a smartphone to talk by text (voice calls are also prohibited in principle)

- 嬌声や猥褻行為のない、テキストメッセージだけが交差するだけの、静謐なインテリジェント(?)な空間

-A quiet, intelligent space without shyness or obscenity, by text messages intersect only.


With such a maid cafe, I would like to try again.



The means to achieve this complete non-verbal communication (apparent misuse) is, I think,


(1) Always wearing earplugs or noise cancellers


in addition,


(2) Realization of a "Sign Language Rapid Learning Program" for all citizens, bringing together the full power of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology



- In morning and luncheons, leaders explain the work of the day in "sign language" and members ask questions in "sign language"


- In a job interview, applicants present their future aspirations in sign language


- In an izakaya bar, leave your seat sufficiently, complain in "sign language", and make ill of your boss in "sign language"


(The above "sign language" can be converted to "SNS text message")


In short, I want to see a world in which humans are "lonely" over the world, the "lonely" are connected.



The Spanish flu, which is said to have killed up to 100 million people worldwide 100 years ago, has converged in just under two years.


At that time, the existence of the virus was unknown.

それに比べれば、今回の、新型コロナ災禍は ―― もちろん、最悪ではありますが ―― スペイン風邪よりはかなりマシな条件下にあります。

By comparison, the new Corona disaster is under much better conditions than the Spanish cold. Of course I know, this is the worst.

だから ―― 2年間くらい、「非会話」を続けるくらいのことなら、大したことではないと思います。

So, I don't think it's a big deal if you have to heep silent about two years.

2020-04-04 ―― 桜の咲きほこる雅な茶会の席で、俳句をしたためながら、ホトトギスの声を遠くに聞く [長年日記]


The other day,

""A forefront of corona infection battle" sent by a doctor to an engineer"


I received the second e-mail from Dr.Shibata,"Shibata, the cutting in two under train wheels" the author of this column.

本日は、そのメールに対して、私からシバタ先生へ送った 「私(江端)からのお願いメール」を公開致します。

Today, in response to the email, I will a "Request email from me (Ebata)" sent to me by Dr.Shibata.

====== ここから ======

====== From here ======


Dear Dr.Shibata.


I read your email.


Basically, I don't think there is a logical contradiction between the email I received last time and the one I received this time.


You wrote "change of opinion" yourself, but I couldn't feel anything wrong.


It was a remarkable "supplement" that strengthened the previous content.


That aside.



At the moment, the content of Dr.Shibata's e-mail, which has been published by me, as my my contribution, has over 5,000 tweets and messages.


I have read all of these messages (true). Many readers seem to understand the content of Dr.Shibata's previous email correctly, and have come up with the same conclusions as Dr.Shibata's email this time.


This is, in my experience, a pretty “miracle” situation.

EE Times Japanも私も「炎上」を前提として身構えていましたが、現時点において、炎上は全く発生していません。

Both EE Times Japan and I were preparing for the premise of "Flame", but at the moment no flame has occurred.


I think this is because Dr.Shibata's content has solved the two difficult (conflicting) issues, that is the content has a logical structure while while snuggling up with the reader.


However, this means that only those who have the ability to understand Dr.Shibata's content are likely to be "selected".


ところで ――

By the way,


In this SNS message, the word "long" appears almost entirely.


In the field of my engineers, we do not call this content "long."


After all, Dr.Shibata's column is written in Japanese, without jargon, and in colloquial language.


Compared to the fact that we engineers read more than 30 patent specifications (including English text sometimes) over 30 pages in one day, he burden of reading this column is likely that,

―― 桜の咲きほこる雅な茶会の席で、俳句をしたためながら、ホトトギスの声を遠くに聞く

"At the elegant tea party where the cherry blossoms are blooming, while making to a haiku poem, with hearing birdsong"



Well, it may be unusually long for a web article, however, all of my articles are basically long.


This may be an evidence that I (we?) are at 2-3 σ with the average of society.


(Every rude junior emphasizes it and scolds me.)


Restless talk



If you are not annoyed about this email (the 2nd ) of Dr.Shibata, I would like to make it public on our website.

EE Times Japanのような広報力はありませんが、「多くの読者」にとって、

There is no public relations power like EE Times Japan, however for "many readers"


(Honestly speaking, it doesn't matter, but just for "me")


I am convinced that the content must be kept.


So I may make some tampering to make it easier for me in the future to read.


I hope that we will work as the followings, as an approach, (Step.1) I edit, (Step.2) Dr.Shibata checks, (Step.3) If we get the final OK, (Step.4) I disclose the URL on my blog.


I will do it without the burden of Dr.Shibata, so I would appreciate it if you could consider it.(I do not think there is a need for super-early publication like the last time)


Thank you for your continued support.


Tomoichi Ebata

====== ここまで ======

====== To here ======


(To be continued)

2020-04-05 コラム「ある医師がエンジニアに寄せた"コロナにまつわる現場の本音"」に関するシバタ医師の追加コメント [長年日記]


(Continuation from yesterday)

Dr.Shibata's additional comments, for the column "A forefront of corona infection battle" sent by a doctor to an engineer


I uploaded that now.

2020-04-06 『自分のシミュレーションの結果を、自分の目で確認するまでは、死んでたまるか』 [長年日記]


The other day, I found a SNS message on the Internet.


"I found a person whose name "Tomoichi Ebata". His works are very interesting. I wonder why he has not tried suiside by himself"



At first, I thuoght "what does it mean?" however, I came to mind immediately.


Because all of my columns shows only

―― 絶望的な未来

"Desperate future"



In addition, we are offering three sets of logic, numerical values, and simulation.



However, I also seem strange.


So, I wondered, "Why did I not commit suicide until now, drawing a 'desperate future'?"


The answer came out quite easily (about 5 seconds).



"Until I confirm the results of your simulation with my own eyes, I never die"


That's because the thoughts lead to my attachment to life.


This is the human nature of both as an engineer and a researcher.

2020-04-07 「ITエンジニアではない元東京都知事は、詳しく知らないで発言したのだろう」と思っています。 [長年日記]


"A system that collects about 100 million questionnaire data on SNS, inserts it into a DB (database), and aggregates, can be created on even my personal computer at home"

"The former Governor of Tokyo, who is not an IT engineer, would have spoken without knowing the details."


Probably, I think that this kind of system construction can be done in one day.


Such as recording about 100 million records, can be processed by a script language and the data aggregation can be completed in a few minutes by a single operator.



This time, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare implemented


"A nationwide survey conducted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare using the free communication application "LINE" to combat new coronavirus"


is "unusual jackpot system", I think.


Because, this system


can process data for users, as well as system managers, quickly, cheaply, and easily.


can secure anonymity.


is easy to collect meaningful answers (uninterested humans will ignore it if they take time to enter wrong answers)


こんなアホみたいな低コストで、数千万人の単位のデータが収集できる ―― こんな「美味しいシステム」滅多にありません。

In this way, this system can collect data of tens of millions of people at a low cost. Such a “delicious system” is rare.


By the way, I ran a simulation of 300 million people on my home computer 10,000 times in a row, and it took about 14 hours.


In other words, data processing for 300 million people is completed in about 0.5 seconds.


If someone ask me whether memory writing by simulation can be considered as similar to DB writing, I can say that recent DB writing may be faster than memory writing (It is true)


Writing and searching with 100 million DBs by LINE this time could have taken a few seconds if the total CPU time was used.



The former Governor of Tokyo may have had the image of "several dozens of people print data results and hit calculators" in data aggregation.


But that image is not correct.


"Aggregation operations and documentation were completed within a few hours by one engineer."


I estimated that.


That's because even an engineer, like me, can complete about 100 million lines of SQL processing in this time.


The performance of big data and SNS message processing these days has sometimes surprised me even on site.


So his remarks could not have been helped.



Nevertheless, if he is saying something that is not his specialty, it is better to spend a little time researching it himself or asking an expert before speaking.


We should be especially careful when criticizing something or someone.


I write this diary with my self-awareness.

2020-04-08 ただ、条文上、メイド喫茶や深夜のバーの営業自粛は「要請」することはできても、「禁止」することはできないようです。 [長年日記]


Since I am not interested in professional baseball, I have no special feelings that the official match of professional baseball will not be held.


Since I am not interested in professional baseball, I have no special feelings that the official match of professional baseball will not be held.


However, I was shocked that

―― 「やはり俺の青春ラブコメはまちがっている。完」の放送延期

"My youth romantic comedy is wrong. the last episode" is postponed




Of course, to maintain the quality of the work, I endure a year, but still,


"Issuance of Declaration of Emergency based on the Act on Special Measures against Pandemic Influenza"


The announcement of this broadcast postponement was quite hard for me at the day of the issuance.



In that feeling, for no particular reason, I was reading the whole sentence of

"Law against Special Measures against New Influenza"




Article 32 contains the contents of the Declaration of Emergency (paragraph 1), the period, place and outline.


What I found interesting was that the validity period of the emergency declaration was clearly stated as "not more than two years" (paragraph 2) (with an extension provision (paragraph 3)).


This seems to be due to past cases where any pandemic will become controllable within approximately two years (e.g. Spanish cold).



I also examined the conditions for triggering an emergency declaration based on this law.


There was a statement that "specified by a separate ordinance", so I looked for it.


The grounds clause is

Article 6 (2) of this


(1) "When the route that could be infected cannot be identified"



(2)"When the public has taken actions that may spread the new influenza and the like to the public"


I roughly estimated the above two.



Here, I went back to the Act on Special Measures for Countermeasures against New Influenza, and tried to pick up the subject appearing here.


The names of the nations, governments, municipalities, regular public institutions, designated local public institutions, and titles such as the Prime Minister and prefectural governors. And "Citizen" appears under the item (Obligation of the people) (Article 4).


Speaking of the people's obligations, I recall the "duty of education (Article 26, paragraph 2)", "duty of work (Article 27, paragraph 1)" and "duty of tax payment (Article 30)" written in the Constitution of Japan .


However, I haven't seen anything that mentions "national obligations" in the provisions of laws other than the Constitution, so I felt uncomfortable and fresh.



And the first thing I look for when reading articles is "penalties".


In this law, Articles 76 to 78 had provisions.


(1) Persons who did not cooperate in providing goods shall be sentenced to imprisonment of 6 months or less or a fine of 300,000 yen or less.


(2) Persons who did not cooperate with on-site inspection (assuming requisition etc.) are fined up to 300,000 yen


(3) Not only the individual (1) and (2) above, but also the corporation to which the individual belongs is fined together (both penalties).


Although relatively weak, there are penalties with criminal penalties.


Well,the law may be expecting the "exposed person" effect.



However, according to the provisions, it seems that maid cafes and bar bars at midnight can be "requested" but not "prohibited"


(I couldn't find it, so please let me know who found it)


So, I think that they will issue an additional government ordinance and bring "compensation for damages to business" as a "hostage" and a "virtual ban".


Well, as anyone who has learned the law knows, the phrase "as stipulated by separate ordinance" is quite "childish".


This is because the separate ordinance does not require the approval of the Diet and can be included by the Cabinet.


like "cheats at rock-paper-scissors".(However, penal regulations cannot be imposed on separate ordinances (Article 73 of the Constitution of Japan)).



I think "when I access the primary information, I can know a lot more than a news program that repeats the same thing", but my great time has passed.


Let's get back to the story.


I was shocked that

―― 「やはり俺の青春ラブコメはまちがっている。完」の放送が延期

"My youth romantic comedy is wrong. the last episode" is postponed


Just as I was shocked, I can think that some people are also shocked to postpone the official professional baseball game or postpone the professional league match.

そういう方法で、失望感を共有することはできるのです ―― ベクトルがどんなに違っていたとしても、です。

In that way, we can share our disappointment. no matter how different the vectors are.

2020-04-09 『その辺は、なんとか上手く回るようになっているんだよ!』 [長年日記]

Amazon PRIMEで、"ReLIFE"というアニメを見ました。

I watched an animation whose title is "ReLIFE" on Amazon PRIME.


It was a good anime.


Again, I said it was a very good anime.



Here, let's dig the animation base on my science brain in a fun.


- What is the business model of the “ReLIFE Institute”?

膨大な医薬開発コスト、監視対象の監視期間、記録媒体の改竄、実験終了後の関係者の記憶の抹消 ――

Huge drug development costs, Monitoring period of the monitoring target, Falsification of recording media, Erasing the memories of the people involved after the experiment,


When we apply the labor cost of a certain laboratory, I think that the experiment cost for one subject is at least 40 million yen per year and 200 million yen at the maximum.


What is the cost-effectiveness?


The effect obtained is too small against the effect of the experiment.


- Is the after-effect of medicine OK?


If aging and anti-aging processes are performed overnight, the load on brain cells as well as body cells will be enormous.


Well, even if the subject knows the risks well, manipulating memory for humans who are environmental factors (students around subjects) can be a humanitarian problem, and moreover, a significant violation of human rights.



I talk this story to junior daughter. She disgrunted me


"That's working well, Mind your own business !"


まあ、なんというか ―― 「次女が正しい」

Well, I think "she is right".

2020-04-10 2週間前に、この「悪夢」を誰か想定していたか? ―― はっきりいって「誰もいなかった」と断言できます。 [長年日記]


Post-law and retrospective law are not allowed in a rule-of-law state.


The post-mortem / retrospective law is to create a law later and add a penalty retroactively.


If we do this by law, nobody will know what will later become "crime".


There are so many crimes in the world that can not be forgiven emotionally, morally and humanely.


Nevertheless, the rule of law is that "you cannot judge a person unless it is based on the law, not the emotions, thoughts, or personal beliefs."


To continue enacting laws to prevent future crimes, based on the lament, anger and sadness of many people.


This is the fate and pride of the people of the rule of law.



Even if you don't talk about the "rule of law", it is "irrational" to judge past cases based on current judgment criteria.


For example, physical punishment and power harassment in the educational setting were called "love whip" and sexual harassment was called "communication."


However we can say, "So what?" coldy.

That means,


Regardless of past common sense or social wisdom, current corporal punishment, abuse, power harassment, and sexual harassment are judged solely by current common sense and social wisdom.


We don't care anything, no matter who claims what based on past values


Therefore, no matter how tedious we are, we must always catch up our current common sense and justice, and keep changing ourselves




It keeps changing every day (or every hour if you are bad) that virus infections without treatment and social responses.


No one could have imagined this two weeks ago.


As I write my diary now, all over the world


The number of infected people increases every 100,000 people every day,


Every day, a few percent die


Triage (abandoning patients with low chance of survival) has begun in the field


A situation like "I have a nightmare" is developing in real time all over the world.


2週間前に、この「悪夢」を誰か想定していたか? ―― はっきりいって「誰もいなかった」と断言できます。

Two weeks ago, who envisioned this "nightmare"? ―― To be clear, I can assert that "nobody was there"


Of course, me too.


Two weeks ago, everyone would have thought "in April."


You would normally expect to have an entrance ceremony, an entrance ceremony, a transfer, a meeting, and a busy daily life.


However, we are now stunned by the worst April in human history.


And at the moment, there is no future on the convergence of this disaster.


In fact, I myself wrote a diary of a packed ski resort on the middle of March (March 21).


And no one has blamed my solo ski diary for "the day I published that diary".


Of course, I thought that if I was a solo skier, I wouldn't have any of the three conditions (*), but the fact is trun that I went out with a loose feeling.


(*) A generic term for the three elements of "closed", "dense" and "close"


Of course, some people may come to blame me "now," however in "now," it does not help anything.



At the beginning of March, it was not clear whether or not the "avoidance of three conditions", which is now common sense, would be effective.


Even in mid-March, I think the image was about the effort target.


So, I am going to ask you,

―― 3月21日に、私が、ソロスキーに出かけたことを、論理的に批判できる人がいたら、私に論戦をふっかけて欲しい

"If anyone could logically criticize my trip to solo ski on March 21, I would like you to argue with me."



I would like you to provide a logical explanation of what was wrong with my actions based on the facts as of March 21.


Of course, I will try my best to refute based on the facts of the March 21 stage.


What is important here is that "criticism from the future beyond March 21", that is, "criticism citing the current situation will not be accepted."


逆に言えば ――



At the present, it makes clear that we can't control the number of infected people, and we know that people who have high fever of 38 degrees or more for almost two weeks, and people wandering about life and death in hell-like pain that cannot breathe on his own,



College students hugging at the station platform and talking loudly,


Adults at a pub, face-to-face, drunk, spitting, and swearing by her boss

―― 殴り倒して良い

"You can beat them down"


I think that.

2020-04-11 ―― こういう「感染リテラシー」の低い人間が存在していたとしても、直ちに私たちの努力が台無しになる訳ではない [長年日記]


Currently, people are asked for refraining from going out and contacting other people all over Japan.


I'm basically closed at home, the other day, an “emergency urgent business” occurred, and I took the train after a long time.



On the way home, at the ticket gate of the station, I was not a little shocked that I found a group of youth who were playing with friends while shouting out


To be honest, I wanted to beat them.


In foreign countries, there have been cases where residents killed a group of young people who were making noise in front of their homes with guns.


In Japan, something similar has already happened, and I think it will be news.



However, I think that what we are careful, is

―― こういう「感染リテラシー」の低い人間が存在していたとしても、直ちに私たちの努力が台無しになる訳ではない

"Even if these people have low "infection literacy", our efforts are not spoiled immediately"



This is clear from the results of this simple simulation.


(Note: it doesn't appear in IE browser).

"Stay at Home"にチェックを入れた場合と、入れないで比較すれば、その結果は明らかです。

The result is clear if you check "Stay at Home" with or without.

"Stay at Home"にチェックを入れた場合でも、一定の人数は、"Stay at Home"を守っていませんが、感染が抑制されている様子が示されれいます。

Even if "Stay at Home" is checked, a certain number of people do not comply with "Stay at Home", however, the simulator indicates that the infection has been controlled.

"Show deaths"にチェックを入れれば、さらにはっきりします。

Check "Show deaths", it makes the effect clear.


In other words, if the number of people with low "infection literacy" can be reduced, the infection can be controlled.


From these results, you can see that the policy of the government and local governments, "Reduce the number of people contacting by 80%", makes sense.



Regarding "the youth who are playing with 5 friends", we seem to think that they are usually playing with 25 friends (that is, 80% reduction), and we don't think

―― 犯罪的なまでに低能

"They are criminally incompetent"

とは、思わないようにしましょう ―― やつらの為ではなく、私たちの心の健康の為に。

This is not for them, but for our mental health.

2020-04-12 後輩:「もし江端さんが、冗談と思っていたなら、江端さん、私の話を全然理解していなかった、ということです」 [長年日記]

In my last column, I wrote about "New Corona Countermeasures Using Placebo".


Later, my junior called and talked a bit about this.


Ebata: "I wrote this story in the context of a" breathtaking" after "severe stories".


Junior: "Mr. Ebata, what are you talking about? That's a serious and essential story about this measure."

江端:「え? マジ?」

Ebata: "Well? Seriously?"


Junior: "If you thought it was a joke, you wouldn't understand my story at all."



Today, I was searching for a patent all day at work, I happened to find a great patent application.

"Devices, systems, and methods for promoting behavioral change based on mindfulness techniques"


The applicant seems to be a US venture company.


I was astonished that the invention of "placebo mindfulness technique" was described as a way to encourage patients to change their daily behavior.


So, I checked what uses placebo as technology. In fact, one of the cognitive-behavioral therapies was a technique called "placebo administration".


In clinical trials of antidepressants for depression, it has also been confirmed that symptoms are improved to some extent even in the placebo group (containing no active ingredient) (*).

(*)Marchesi C, De Panfilis C, Tonna M, Ossola P (2013). "Is placebo useful in the treatment of major depression in clinical practice?" Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat 9: 915-20. doi:10.2147/NDT.S44519. PMC: 3699255. PMID 23836976.



I think that there was a reason why he protested too much, indeed.

2020-04-13 ―― 「私には量子の振る舞いは分からん」ということを、「説明可能な状態」にした [長年日記]


In accordance with the home waiting instruction accompanying the Tokyo Metropolitan Government's declaration of an emergency, I stayed at my home, spending work time and private time.


I'm usually good at "being alone".


If I follow the instruction of "80% reduction in contact", the number will be below the decimal point, and if I round to the first decimal place, the number will be 0.


Although the possibility of being a victim of infection is unknown, I am proud that I am one of the safest in the world as a perpetrator of infection.



The problem is managing my health, especially my weight.


Recently, I am walking around my home without people for about an hour while reading a book.

It is the revival of "Walking reader".

やっぱり、"Walking reader"は良いです。

After all, "Walking reading" is good for me.


So far, I have been able to read two books about quantum computers three times, and I think "I can grab it".


To be exact,

―― 「私には量子の振る舞いは分からん」ということを、「説明可能な状態」にした

I could make "I don't understand the behavior of quantum" a "explainable state"



From this month, I am going to open , this "I don't know".

2020-04-14 因みに我が家では、「非日常」「完遂」「総括」という言葉が、普通の家庭よりは頻用されていると思います。 [長年日記]


Humans are strange. People can know the age of younger than them, however cannot know the age of olde than them.


To exaggerate, My daughters seem to think of me as

―― 娘たちは、私のことを「B29戦闘爆撃機」を目撃した歴史の証人

a "witness of history witnessing the B29 fighter bomber"



Not even my daughters, some people are likely to think that

―― 江端は、70年安保闘争で、東大安田講堂に立て籠って攻防戦を闘った

"Ebata stood in the Yasuda Auditorium of the University of Tokyo in the 70-year security struggle, and fought the battle."




It's a misunderstanding.


Unfortunately, I haven't been in B29 for 50 years, Yasuda Auditorium for 30 years.


The only thing in time is the "Aum Shinrikyo Subway Sarin Incident".



Well, I think it's my responsibility to make such misunderstandings.


I'm interested in modern history (WWI to WWII and postwar) and I know quite a lot about the 60 and 70 year security struggles.


If such behaviors appear on a daily basis, it is unavoidable to be misunderstood.


By the way, in my home, the words "unusual", "completion", and "summary" are used more often than in ordinary households, I think.



And, I want to go to the movie

"Yukio Mishima vs The 50th Year of Truth in the University of Tokyo Collaborative Fight"


however, currently, all movie theaters in the Tokyo metropolitan area are in the state of being canceled.


I was wondering if I go to see a movie theater in a rural area, but I understand that "Tokyo residents" are "uninvited guests" in Japan at the moment (*).


(*)At the moment, Tokyo has the highest number of new corona cases.


That's natural, and I think I should respond accordingly.


という訳で、今週末は、Amazon PRIMEで、「実録・連合赤軍 あさま山荘への道程」の視聴でガマンしようと思っています。

So, this weekend, I'm going to play with Amazon PRIME by watching "Actual Record: The Road to the Red Army Asama Sanso".

2020-04-15 オンライン授業の教材を作成できない、教師の自宅からのネット中継を実現できない ―― そんな教師は、もういらない [長年日記]

Up to now, I have always been in the position that "PC literacy education" for elementary and junior high school students is "essential" and "bringing a smartphone to school" is "obvious".


Unfortunately, this controversy can be said to have been settled while the curfew was issued in the declaration of emergency.


Needless to say, smartphones are now exerting a great deal of power in mental measures for children who cannot go out.


From now on, "children who cannot take online classes" will become a social problem.



It's too late to learn the literacy of smartphones and PCs when taking online classes.


When the interface and operation methods are part of the body, online lessons become "useful".


The senior citizens of the neighborhood association prove it, who shouts out loud "I can't use email".

(Here you can see in the data how they are disturbing local activities)



Children are more likely to learn naturally if they are given a smartphone or PC. even if not, it can be expected that the investment in education will be small (the basis data is the daughters of the Ebata family).


The problem is "teachers".

オンライン授業の教材を作成できない、教師の自宅からのネット中継を実現できない ―― そんな教師は、もういらない

We don't need a teacher, who cannot create teaching materials for online classes, or cannot broadcast online from my teacher's home.


The time is coming soon.


I think that lazy teachers who do not desperately study literacy as an Internet service provider(×user), should think positively about changing jobs.



I don't think this new coronavirus erosion will end this time alone.


Untreated killer viruses are always ready to be activated.


In the first place, even without this catastrophe, class closures due to the flu occurred every year.


Especially in Japan, typhoon disasters occur every year. And the future of a major earthquake that kills tens of thousands of people is definite.


Meanwhile, educational infrastructure (schools, etc.) can always be said to be precarious.


There is an urgent need to establish an educational system that does not assume "containers (school building)".


Then, children should come together only for "the teacher's online lesson, which is easy to understand".

そうなれば、子どもは「授業をサボることが無制限に許された授業」の中で、「授業をサボること = 自殺行為」である、という現実に気がつくようになります ―― 時間はかかるかもしれませんが。

If this happens, the child will become aware of the reality of "class skipping = suicide", in the the "classes where unlimited skipping is permitted" --Although it may take time.



I asked my daughters, that many teachers still lack literacy as Internet education service providers. Furthermore, it seems that some teachers are not willing to acquire that IT literacy as Internet education service provider.


This is "Being thoroughly disgusted".

「人の勉強を教える人間が、自分の不得意な勉強をしない」 ―― 他の職種の人ならともかく、「教師」だけは、この言い訳は絶対に許されない。

"A person who teaches others, does not study about area of weaknesses" --- Except for people of other occupations, only "teachers" can never afford this excuse.


Of course, teachers are human too. so first they also have to beg for the teaching.

Teachers also have to pay a fair price for education or politely ask young people to teach.


Not as "acceptance" but as "obvious".

2020-04-16 ―― Amazon PRIMEの「時差同時上映」 [長年日記]


A movie that I've always been interested in, since the theater company Caramel Box was performing, whose title is


"Key thief's method"

を、ようやく、Amazon PRIMEで見ました。

I watched the movie by Amazon PRIME.



The Ebata family has established a culture where individuals enjoy TV, PCs, and smartphones in pieces.


Therefore, it is normal for us to hear the sound of two smartphones and one PC at the same time in the living room.


Of course, there are audio problems, however, in addition to adjusting the volume, various measures have been taken, such as using the FM transmitter to send the TV sound to the radio (I set it up, of course).

私が自分の部屋のPCで、Amazon PRIMEの映画を見ている途中で「凄く面白い!」と嫁さんに伝えると、嫁さんが、リビングのテレビにつないだPCで、その映画を最初から見始める

When I told my wife "It's very interesting!" While watching an Amazon PRIME movie on my room PC, my wife starts watching the movie from the beginning on a PC connected to the living room TV

―― Amazon PRIMEの「時差同時上映」

Amazon PRIME's "Time difference simultaneous screening"


We are trying the method.



"Key Thief's Method" is a very fun movie that I can recommend to everyone.


While thinking that this might be more interesting if it is a play script, I noticed that "I see, the caramel box has performed twice"

私、映画のラスト1秒のシーンで、涙が出るほど爆笑しました ―― こんなこと、本当に久しぶりです。

I burst into tears in the movie's last 1-second scene. It's been a long time since I've done this.

2020-04-17 ―― 量子の振舞いの恐しさに比べたら、"UFO"も"幽霊"も"あの世"も、怖いものの数には入らない [長年日記]


I am studying the fundamentals of quantum mechanics when studying quantum computers.


As a result,

―― 量子の振舞いの恐しさに比べたら、"UFO"も"幽霊"も"あの世"も、怖いものの数には入らない

"Compared to the fear of quantum behavior, neither "UFOs", "ghosts", or "the world" are in the number of scary things."


I feel that.


I have heard from various people and books about "phenomenon beyond the common sense of quantum", I feel the fear by doing my own research.

私たちの世界に対する理解は、まだ全然足りない ―― そう実感しながら、今も、調べ続けています。

Our world is not fully understood, while realizing that, I continue to investigate.

2020-04-18 ■午前11:30営業開始だったのが、午前9時に開店して「モーニングラーメン」を始めたラーメン屋(閉店時刻を2時間早めた) [長年日記]


As a target for new coronavirus infection, I try not to go out.


Even so, the word "self-restraint request" used by top people in the media and government is being abused.


"Self-restraint request" is not much different from the slogan "improvement of quality" of the poster, put on the production line of the factory.

つまり ―― 効果が期待できない

In other words, we can't expect an effect.



No. in fact, I know that well.


I read all the articles of the law concerning the declaration of emergency before,


"This law does not prohibit the movement of people or economic activities (*)"


(*)However, this is not the case when it is certified as a legally infectious disease, after a certain procedure.


I know that.


Of course, because there is no law, there are no criminal penalties(There are many laws without penalties).


Therefore, the limit of the message that can be spoken becomes "request self-restraint".



Since I can't come to work at the moment, I am walking around the town alone to loose lack of exercise. but I look at some interesting things.


"Butchers and greengrocers that are normally open without closing stores except Saturdays and Sundays"


Well, even if it's normal,


Izakaya bar just changed business hours from "until 24:00" to "until 22:00"


The most hit restaurant I've seen is


The ramen shop usually opened at 11:30 am is used to open 9:00 am and starts "morning ramen"(The closing time was advanced by 2 hours)



These self-restraints are "self-restraint for self-restraint", and the purpose of "virus infection prevention" cannot be seen.


(To be continued)

2020-04-19 行政は、私達に対して、自発的に民衆による法律に拠らない刑の執行 ―― 私刑(リンチ) ―― を期待しているのもかもしれません。 [長年日記]


(Continuation from yesterday)


In China, there is a famous phrase "There are policies on the top and strategies on the bottom".


The original meaning is that "if the country makes a policy, the people have a way to respond to that policy."


However, it is generally used to mean that "regardless of what the government decides, the common people will always come up with a way out."


In system engineering, there are the ideas of "local optimization" and "global optimization".


"Global optimization" means that the individual can accept the disadvantages and the group can obtain the maximum benefit.


Infectious disease control is a typical "global optimization" strategy.


But for most people, everything in a 10 meter radius is everything.

市町村などの行政区や、国家という単位で「利益」を見ることはできません ―― 私達にあるのは「私益(局所最適)」のみです。

We cannot see "profit" in units such as municipalities or administrative districts or nations. We have only "private interests (local optimization)".



If the nation can make stronger laws that can restrict the rights of individuals, it may be possible to effectively prevent infection.

However, it is also true that our country once made such a law, and as a result, all the people were in "terrible eyes."

だから 「自粛要請」だけでなんとかしたい、という気持ちは、私も同じです。

Therefore, I have the same feeling that I want to do something just by "requesting self-restraint".


これは邪推ですが ――

This is just an unjust suspicion.

行政は、私達に対して、自発的に民衆による法律に拠らない刑の執行 ―― 私刑(リンチ) ―― を期待しているのもかもしれません。

Governments may expect us to execute voluntary, non-law enforcement sentences, called "lynch"


It is such an insidious "private punishment" that exposes the above-mentioned izakaya bar and ramen shops on SNS and YouTube.

2020-04-20 「この記事が、ひと月近くもランキングから落ちない」 [長年日記]


Recently, I've been depressed at work, and I'm having an impact outside of work.


Specifically, the update of the diary is delayed.


I don't feel like writing anymore,

"This article won't fall out of the rankings for nearly a month."


Today I would like to report the above.



2020-04-21 ―― 私は、しゃべりすぎる [長年日記]


It's a stupid thing to notice at this age,

―― 私は、しゃべりすぎる

"I talk too much"


I come to think that again.



Saying that "I can do it" about what I might be able to do it


If I did what I can do it,


Another thing will come by the result.


I've been repeating that.


Repeating that, I finally made my body that I couldn't drink.


There were days when I had a drip, a nutritional supplement, a stabilizer, and a sleeping pill.


This is strange.


There are a lot of people around me who live without breaking my body and holding stabilizers and sleeping pills.



I will say "I cannot do it" about what I might be able to do it


I will not say "I can do it" from myself, even if it is not.


I think from now on, keeping strictly the above rules, I have to live my life.


So even if I meet unfortunate things,


It's better than dying.

2020-04-22 ―― 国家レベルの「心の崩壊」が始まっている [長年日記]


I need to review my previous work. When you start the work, the fear at that time is reproduced, my heart beats, and breathing becomes difficult.


I know that "initial response" is important, whenever I have such symptoms. Because I wrote about it in my columns.


Immediately, I tried to make a telephone reservation to several clinics of Department of Psychiatry and Internal Medicine, however at all the clinics I was told that my first visit was after June.


This may also be part of the chain of medical collapse.


Rather, I am thinking that,

―― 国家レベルの「心の崩壊」が始まっている

The national level "disintegration of mental health" has begun


2020-04-23 江端さんは「『悪夢』は予測していなかった」けれども、「『数字』自体は予想していた」のではないでしょうか(ですよね?)。 [長年日記]

Q. Looking back on the infection status of COVID-19 on April 10, was there a problem that (Ebata) enjoyed his (solo) ski trip on March 21?


In response, I received an email from Dr. Shibata, so I will open it with the permission.

====== シバタ先生(通称「轢断のシバタ」さん)からのお返事、ここから ======

====== Reply from Dr. Shibata ("Shibata of the overrun"), from here ======

A. 江端さんのスキー旅行にはまったく問題は無いと思います。

A. I think that Mr. Ebata's ski trip had no problem at all.


Historically, or rather, human societies are so loose that they indirectly harm the lives of others on a daily basis.


"Tobacco ⇒ Cancer death"


"Harassment and economic disparity that are not recognized as crime ⇒ suicide"

■「自動車⇒事故死、後遺症」 "

Automobile ⇒ accidental death, sequelae"


"Fast or salty food ⇒ hypertension ⇒ lethal vascular lesions"


"Nuclear power plant on volcanic and earthquake islands"


There are many examples and reality that human life is lighter than greed and inertia.


Well, there is a used expression that "Integration of multiplication of difference in life expectancy between developing and developed countries and number of births". It is said that this is the same of "the amount of life that person who haves cut off persons who have-nots".


So, I think that according to the act before the harmful act is widely known as a threat at the level of social common sense, nobody should take responsibility.


Also, the Japanese government weighs the economy and the complete end of COVID-19, and at the moment, we are giving up the end of COVID-19 and aiming for equilibrium.


The complete closure of the economy will hunt down a lot of people, create a lot of misfortune, and generate a considerable number of suicides.


So I agree with this direction.


The government's aim is to minimize the misfortunes of the world = spend money while keeping the number of COVID-19 patients to a number that does not cause medical collapse.


Corona is dead but society is dead ... This doesn't make us laugh.


When thinking that way, I think that Mr. Ebata, who spent money on leisure when there were only a few infected people, contributes much more to society than the young people who wander around without spending money in Shibuya.



However, if I would like to add only one point, Mr. Ebata. you could not anticipate this "nightmare", but you could expect the number itself, Could you?


(To be continued)

2020-04-24 という訳で、私の「量子コンピュータ」のコラムの内容を監修して頂ける方を探しております。 [長年日記]


Today, new my column is released, so I take a day off.

Dancing Buzzword-Behind the Buzzword (1) Quantum Computer (1)

You don't have to understand the ghost story, "quantum computer" anymore



This is a new series.


Publicly, I think this column will be "a description of the technology that has become a buzzword."


However, unlike the previous "artificial intelligence", this "quantum computer" is honestly quite a burden for me.


In the "Artificial Intelligence" series, I coded all the AI technology algorithms in the series and tried the functions, even if it is poor.

ですので、もし内容にケチをつけられても、直ちにそのコードを公開して、迎撃して、反撃できる ―― という状況にありました。

So, even if my column was criticized, I could immediately publish the code, intercept it, and counterattack it.


(What am I fighting for)


However, at the moment, the "quantum computer" is not installed in my room at home.

「ラズパイサイズ」で、「ラズパイ価格」の量子コンピュータが販売されるまでは、待機しなければなりません ―― が、私が、生きている間に、お目にかかれるか微妙なところです。

I have to wait until the "raspey size" quantum computer at the "raspey price" is sold. However, it's a subtlety that I could watch it during my life.


Anyway, there is always anxiety about the explanation of things that I can not try with tangible things.



So, I'm looking for someone who can supervise the contents of my "Quantum Computer" column.


It's hard to spell out what I want, but I will welcome anyone like


"Dr.Shibata of the over run", who has given me vast and useful advice and contents from the medical technology field.


"Rude junior" who is in charge of all criticisms of Ebata column, including literary perspective


who can accept Ebata's contents well, cannot ignore the details, and can give advice with "specific example".


Not to mention the theoretical aspects of quantum computers, it would be greatly appreciated if students and teachers who make and touch actual hardware (tangible objects) such as quantum circuits.


We would appreciate it if you could contact me.

2020-04-25 さて、江端さんは、3月21日以前に頭の中に浮かんだ最悪の数字をどのように受け止めておられましたでしょうか? [長年日記]


(Continuation from yesterday)


A considerable number of people above high school who have science thought, noticed "Oh, it's an exponential function." or "It's a disease that easily spreads to 10 to 20% of the population." with kooking at the situation in China in February and the spread of infected people to Diamond Princess in 20% of passengers,


If you couldn't imagine the reason for the convergence at that stage, you should be worried about something in your heart.


And, while making predictions, I think the truth is that most people did not believe in their predictions based on normalization bias.


There must have been an enormous number of people who were even a little worried about the possibility that the coronavirus could spread while riding an exponential function, at the same rate as those who said, "I didn't think I would really lose in World War II (I knew I couldn't really win),"


Even Some people who thought a little calmly, "There can be no exponential function in reality, in the end it is a logistic curve", come to think that "the number of patients who reach the end of the logistic curve" is "the number of patients who achieve collective immunity."


So they might have felt anxious that the rate of increase could almost ride on the exponential function for a while ...I'm sure there was a reasonable number of people.


I think it was either "what kind of mathematics can predict the future of humankind" or If it becomes a reality it is too dangerous ..." instinctly.


Now, Mr. Ebata. how did you take the worst number in his mind before March 21st?

====== シバタ先生(通称「轢断のシバタ」さん)からのお返事、ここまで ======

====== the end of Reply from Dr. Shibata ("Shibata of the overrun") ======


(Supplement by Ebata)


The "logistic function" here simply means that, assuming a country with only 100 people, the closer the number of infected people is to 100, the more the number of infected people decreases. Or, taking infinite time, everyone will be infected.


The "exponential function" here is the situation where the number of infected people increases at a doubling pace every day. So-called "infection explosion".


(To be continued)

2020-04-26 よくよく考えてみれば当然ですが、有効なワクチンも根治治療の手段もないCOVID-19は、コンピュータの計算(シミュレーション)と、恐しく「相性が良い」のです。 [長年日記]


(Continuation from yesterday)

====== 江端の回答ここから ======

====== Ebata's answer From here ======


In conclusion, everything is "Dr.Shibata's point is correct".


In fact, I think I didn't really understand the realities of outbreaks.


Infections that I have been aware of around me, are influenza, colds, dysentery, cholera, and tuberculosis.


Influenza basically converges when the season changes, and containment of other infections has succeeded due to the efforts of many people.



By the way, as a calculator, I do not have an "infection explosion" , but a "calculation explosion on a daily basis."


Computer often causes the phenomenon of overflow.


This means that I can accidentally set your computer's calculation parameters to generate exponential numbers, which can make my computer shut down.


It is, so to speak, an "overshoot" of computer resources.


The "overshoot" of the computer occurs instantly immediately after the calculation is started (the moment the return key is pressed).



―― 現実世界で、「オーバーシュート」が本当に発生したら、日本の主要都市は1ヶ月で機能麻痺、2ヶ月を待たずに路上に死体が放置され始める

If the "overshoot" really occurs in the real world, major cities in Japan will be paralyzed in one month, and corpses will be left on the street within two months.


This was, in my mind, a matter of expectation.


However I downgraded "it is just a story of the virtual world inside the computer"


"Does overflow (overshoot) really appear in the real world?"


with no basis.



So now I'm stunned.


I have never seen a case in which the phenomenon of the virtual world in a computer appeared so perfectly in the real world.


Needless to say, COVID-19, which has neither an effective vaccine nor a means for curative cure, is horribly "compatible" with computer calculations (simulations).


There is no doubt that the current government COVID-19 countermeasure team and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare use computer simulations every day.


(It depends on the model, but if the population is around 10 million people, I think that it can be calculated even with a personal computer).


Therefore, if we do not follow the current COVID-19 infection control measures indicated by the national and local governments,


"25 million infections, 640,000 deaths" (Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare 2007 (13 years ago))


I also know that the above can easily become a reality.

(なぜ2500万人でとどまるかというと、それだけの人数が感染免疫を獲得することで、感染速度が減少する方向に機能する(R0 < 1)からでしょう)

(The reason why the number of people of "25 million" is the upper limit, is that the number of people who have acquired immunity to infect will decrease the infection rate (R0 < 1).


Anyway, I think that the government policy of current "80% reduction in contact" is trusted based on scientific and mathematical grounds.


(Maybe I guess the threshold that leads to "R0 <1.0" is between 70% and 80%)



Anyway, Dr Shibata's comment


However, if I would like to add only one point, Mr. Ebata. you could not anticipate this "nightmare", but you could expect the number itself, Could you?


I have to admit that it is ture.

====== 江端の回答ここまで ======

====== Ebata's answer To here ======

2020-04-27 「やられっぱなしで心底腹を立てているITエンジニアの為の、新型コロナウイスル殲滅戦へのお誘い」 [長年日記]


Today, I will open my email I sent to my sister.

====== 第1通目ここから =====

====== The 1st letter from here =====


Due to the current coronal damage, I have been working from home for a long time in April.


In principle, my family has not gone out.


I wanted to return home to GW, but the Tokyo Metropolitan Government request us to refrain from returning country home, and the company also seems to manage the position of employees.


In addition, according to wife, at a remote girls' association on a smartphone the other day, I know that she heard that people currently living in Tokyo are being treated as "COVID-19 infected people."


(A student enrolled in Tokyo was asked by his/her parents, "Don't go home.")


Well, I think this is unavoidable, and in fact, I myself think that the possibility of being an unknowingly infected person is not zero.


For that reason, I think that I have to stay home all GW days.


However, I am worry about the maintenance of the parents' house, and above all, I have been concerned about my mother's gastrostomy device replacement.


On the other hand, I think that I can do something to consider various conditions (e.g. day trip homecoming (?)) and so on.


If you have any urgent requirements, please let me know soon.

====== 第1通目ここまで =====

====== The 1st letter to here =====

====== 第2通目ここから =====

====== The 2nd letter from here =====


Thank you for your reply.


To be honest, I'm surprised to hear about the infection control at your workplace.


This is also case by case.


In particular, "corona literacy" against viruses is individualized.


However, there is a risk that if an employee has a sick person, the business will be immediately suspended. That's a big problem, isn't it?


Only this time, the administration's "prohibition of three types of close contact" and "80% reduction in contact" are scientifically grounded instructions.


I would like the concept of "contact period" to be included here.


Although there are individual differences, if the amount of virus intake (so-called exposure dose) exceeds a certain value, infection will lead to illness (external excretion of virus).


In that sense, window work is the first line of danger, regardless of the presence or absence of a mask (It is true).


I hope that you will be able to protect yourself by having a "hand wash" that is overwhelmingly more effective than a mask (at least once an hour).


I am currently writing the second column on coronavirus.


The title will be


"Invitation to the New Corona Uisuru Ruin Battle for IT engineers who are angry with Corona"




>Certainly, with this sense, I am afraid that you will be avoided if you say "I am from Tokyo".


I agree. I also think that if someone says "come from New York," I will avoid them.


As I talked with a doctor, it seems that 100 to 1,000 times as many people as official COVID-19 positive responders are estimated to be infected people in Japan including unconscious people.


In particular, we believe that the Ebata family (Machida), who has one teenager and one around Twenty one, may be a potentially infected colony.


Let's take a look at my mother a little more. When it comes time, I will do.


Thank you very much. If I kill my mother, it's really kidding.


Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can do anything remotely.


Thank you for your cooperation.



2020-04-28 我が国の現行の独自の教育年度(4月から3月)が、「教育システムとして有効である」ことをロジカルに主張できる人がいれば、私はお話を伺う準備があります。 [長年日記]

For a long time, I have been a supporter of September admission.


The reason is the time of the entrance examination, moreover I think it is also good from the perspective of internationalization of education.


Well, unless we use this "new coronavirus disaster", we will never see this chance again.



Looking at the countries around the world, it seems that the beginning of September is overwhelmingly large, but that is not all.


For example, January (Singapore), February (Australia, New Zealand), March (Korea), June (Philippines), etc.


On the other hand, according to fiscal year, they was scattered in each country.


As you know, it is April to March in Japan.


However, even in G-7 member countries, the United States (October to September), United Kingdom (April to March), Germany (January to December), France (January to December), Italy (January) From December) to Canada (April to March).


Furthermore, although the United States is from October to September as a federation, the state unit has its own fiscal year.

―― それでも、国際キャッシュフローとしては、なんとかなるんだなぁ

"it will be manageable as an international cash flow"


I'm a little impressed.


Conversely speaking, the financial crisis could be avoided by such fiscal year shifts.


Each country's unique currency system has its good and bad sides.


In particular, the ability of the country to print its own money is an overwhelming advantage in an unprecedented economic crisis like this (although it would be dangerous if it was not brought into a short-term war).


By the way, recently, Euro and Greece have shown that the single currency system is quite dangerous.


会計年度は、各国で統一する必要はないのかもしれませんが ―― さて、「教育年度」はどうでしょうか?

Fiscal years may not need to be uniform across countries, however, how about the "educational year"?

国際協調の観点では9月が良いとは思いますが、個人的には、入試の時期が「雪害」と「インフルエンザ」と「台風」と「猛暑」がぶつかってこなければ ―― 正直、どーだっていいです。

I think September is good from the perspective of international cooperation. I think September is good from the perspective of international cooperation. Personally, if entrance examinations are not disturbed by "snow damage", "flu", "typhoon", and "hot weather", I don't care it at all.


If anyone can logically claim that the current unique education year in Japan (April to March) is “effective as an education system,” I am going to hear them.


If there is a numerical simulation (even if it is a desktop simulation), I'd be happy to come.

2020-04-29 そこで、「『IT技術者が勧める、中学生、高校生向けのIT技術入門書(または入門方法)』というタイトル(内容)で、江端さんの備忘録を執筆して頂きたい」のです。 [長年日記]


We received the following request from Dr. Shibata.

====== シバタ先生からのご依頼 ここから =====

====== Request from Dr. Shibata from here =====


Currently, my junior high school children are lazy at home.


I made them read the article saying "Programming is essential in the future" that appeared in today's morning newspaper article, and they said, "somehow interesting?"


By the way, they are not able to explain the meaning of the words "programming language" "OS" "editor" "file" "folder". (I will give the outlines to them in the future.)


My skill is about to copy and paste a Excel macro from the web and execute it.


For exampe, I think that I am "a rolling villager who don't know where the evtrace of a pyramid before excavation"


Therefore, "I would like you to write Mr. Ebata's memorandum with the title (contents) of "A book that a IT engineer introductory to junior high school students and high school students( or startup method) .

====== シバタ先生からのご依頼 ここまで =====

====== Request from Dr. Shibata to here =====


I'm one of the people who feels a tremendous sense of crisis in the "programming education" of teenagers.


For more details, please read the following.

It means, human beings are not compatible with mathematics perhaps.

"I will never do programming for my life"

I can already see the "big failure" of programming education in the compulsory education process at this stage, even if not seen by others.

In the first place, I think that "fun programming" is contradictory as "white gray".

For both human beings and computers, "programming languages" are only tools to mutually understand at the last minute

"Why does Ebata try to make a program that nobody will use whenever he release a new column?"

So, why do not we focus on "spreadsheet education"?

First of all, they should not come up with the power to "go to the PC."

If they can make full use of "Excel", I believe that we make no never mind of programming.

"getting over their dislike of numbers (not math)"

(5) We strongly encourage employment of Tomoichi Ebata as a teacher at the site of formulation, planning, and programming education of (1) to (4) above.



I think it is impossible for a teenager to create a programming environment as much as "absolutely absolute power".

コンパイルして、"Hello World"とだけ表示せるようなプログラムなんぞを教えてしまったら、もう、「その子の、プログラマーとしての未来はおしまいだ」とさえ思えるのです。

If I teach a program that compiles and only displays "Hello World" to them, I am afraid that "the child's future as a programmer is over".


I don't think there are any children who can endure that "desperate boringness".


So my claim is

―― ティーンエイジャにプログラミングを教えたいなら、彼等にプログラミングをさせてはならない

"If you want to teach teenagers programming, don't let them program"


is the word for it.


(To be continued)

2020-04-30 これはもう、「私(江端)がティーンエイジャ向けの、EXECL本を執筆するしかないな」と思うに至りました。 [長年日記]


(Continuation from yesterday)


If they realize the power of a computer and want to calculate on a larger scale and at higher speed, they will have to use a programming language.

あるいは、そういうチャンスは、人生に一回もこないかもしれませんが ―― それならそれでも構わないと思うのです。

Or maybe that kind of opportunity never happens in their life, however I think that's fine.


So, I think "program education without programming" means "using Excel (spreadsheet)".


Furthermore, the words "OS", "file" and "folder" are not necessary. Even if they don't know that, Excel will work (they just have to remember "save" and "open").


However, when I review it this time, I think that "I have not written anything concrete."


Since I'm talking so loud, I should mention a sample.


(1)できるだけ薄い本で ―― 1日で完了しなければならない

(1) Book as thin as possible -- must be completed in 1 day

(2)できるだけ上っつらの機能だけが記載されていて ―― 全体の2割の機能が、使われる8割を占める(パレートの法則)

(2) Only the uppermost functions are described as much as possible --- 20% of all functions account for 80% used (Pareto's law)

(3)グラフ表示が多様されていて ―― 「見える化」が重要

(3) Various graph displays --- "Visualization" is important

(4)子ども達が、宿題を片づける上で「悪用」できるものが望ましい ―― つまり、子どもたちにとって「有用」であること

(4) It is desirable for the children to be able to "abuse" in completing their homework ---- that is, "useful" for children.


I thought that the above 4 conditions are essential.



I have spent quite a long time searching for a book that meets the above four conditions, but I could not find.


Or rather, there is no textbook that throws numbers into cells from the first page.

「いいから、黙って、この通り入力しろ! 」というものが良いのですよ。

It's good "Shut up and type this way!"


The reasons will follow (maybe).

- VBAなんかいらねーよ、

- I don't need VBA,

- 会計報告書なんぞ子どもが作るか、

- Children need accounting reports?

- グラフが楽しくねー、

- The graph is not fun,

- 子どもに興味が持てる題材がねーよ、

- There are no subjects that children are interested in

- 四則演算と、@sumと @average だけの本はないのか!

- there is no book with only four arithmetic operations and @sum and @average



Although it is not far from the above 5 conditions, I found a site that is likely to satisfy only the above (1).


It is recommended to operate cells in order from "EXECL" here.


First, work for one day,


and just copy the exact details on the site here.


"How to use Excel" may be skipped.


I think it's enough to use "How to use Excel graph" and "Getting started with Excel functions".

あと「Excelマクロ入門」「Excel VBA入門」「Excelフォーム」は、スキップして下さい。必要ありません。

Also, skipping "Excel Macro Introduction", "Excel VBA Introduction", and "Excel Form". there is no need.



I come to think that "I (Ebata) have no choice but to write an EXECL book for teenages.


The content has not been decided, but the title has been decided.


"Introduction to EXCEL to quickly deal with troublesome school homework"


"Introduction to EXCEL to create such a free research report in the last three days of summer vacation"