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2021-10-06 "The Nobel Prize in Physics for mathematical modeling and simulation is here!" [長年日記]

The awarding of the Nobel Prize in Physics to Dr. Yoshiro Manabe came as a bit of a shock to me.

"The Nobel Prize in Physics for mathematical modeling and simulation is here!"

"Finally, my time has come..."。I'm really impressed.

Well, I might be wrong about two things.

The first is that there may have been a "Nobel Prize" in the past for "mathematical modeling + simulation". I hope you will laugh at my ignorance and let me know.

The second point is, "The mathematical model that Ebata has been working on is this story about 'overtime work' and 'dieting'? You may be taken aback.

Aside from that.

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My own understanding of the significance of Dr. Yoshiro Manabe's Nobel Prize in Physics is as follows.

A complete analysis of global warming is logically possible if you have a computer that can perform infinite calculations at very high speed.

It's called Laplace's Demon.

Global warming does not need to be considered at the level of quantum mechanics, so it is not impossible to achieve Laplace's Demon by force.

However, if we were to do this seriously, it would take a supercomputer 100 years to complete the analysis of atmospheric changes in 1 second (this 100 years could be 1 million years or 10 billion years).

Therefore, in order to perform realistic calculations on a computer, "modeling" is inevitably necessary.

For example, if the modeling can be this simple, it can be calculated in Excel.

However, this modeling is 'deadly difficult'.

First of all, the modeling must not be inconsistent logically (or mathematically) , and it must not deviate from real world phenomena.

And the object is the Earth, the largest object in the world.

So, the significance of this "modeling" is huge for humanity.

Without Dr. Manabe's model, the IPCC would not have moved even a millimeter.

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Up until now, the Nobel Prize in Physics has been awarded for particle accelerators such as the Large Hadron Collider, blue light-emitting diodes, the detection of cosmic neutrinos by the Super-Kamiokande, and so on.

My image was "they need a big piece of hardware".

Therefore, I am very happy to receive the award for "Modeling + Simulation" as if it were my own.

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I am, however, an engineer who "tried and failed to model the IPCC on my home PC.

The above story is about "Ebata who thinks he knows what he's talking about. I will ask that you please take these into consideration.