I think I know a little bit about "rough numbers" concerning our country (Japan), partly because I write a series of columns like this one.

Among them, though the population of Japan has changed a lot recently due to the declining birth rate, I have a rough idea of the population as follows.

(1) One million people are born each year, and one million people die.

(2) 1 million people X 100 years old = 100 million people

It's really rough, but it's useful to have this image in mind.

In other words, roughly 3,000 people are born and die every day in Japan -- in other words, they are being "replaced".

On the other hand, looking at this page, the current vaccination speed of COVID-19 in Japan is,

roughly 10000 people/day.

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What I'm trying to say is...

"If there are 10,000 people vaccinated every day, at least one of them will be among the 3,000 people who die every day".

Of course, such a comparison of figures cannot be used to determine that there are no fatalities associated with the new coronavirus vaccine.

In fact, I don't believe that there is any such thing as "no causality" in a population of over 100 million people.

The human body is a super complex system, and everyone's system configuration is different.

What triggers what, in the end, no one knows.

"Safety" is really just a matter of "probability against the population.

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But at this point, all I can say for sure are,

"The probability of dying from corona infection (which has been proven to be causal) is much higher than the probability of dying from the new corona vaccine (which is currently unknown).

and,

"As a survival strategy, the virus will continue to mutate to make it easier to infect unvaccinated humans"

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The reason why Ebata, who is not a doctor, can say such a thing with such confidence is that he frequently monitors data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and other sources.

The other reason is that I have been using genetic algorithms (GAs) to solve various problems, and I have a "physical" experience of the powerful effectiveness of these algorithms.

Recently, as a weekend engineer, I implemented and validated the algorithm for the memo here.

"The algorithm can come to find the (quasi-)optimal solution to a situation that fluctuates from minute to minute in a matter of seconds."

I was even astonished myself when I saw the results.

In my opinion, it is indisputably clear that the virus will continue to mutate to make it easier to infect unvaccinated people as a survival strategy.

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So...

I'm not a doctor, I'm not an expert in infectious diseases, I'm not a vaccine development engineer, and I'm not even a member of the expert panel, however,

in the background of all the "big talk" about the new coronavirus vaccine,

"There are two things involved: (1) I'm used to reading numbers and (2) I'm (still) using genetic algorithms.