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2021-05-09 "Your criticism of the ignorance of 'a magazine with about 25 deviations' is a proof of your ignorance" [長年日記]

I often watch the TV program whose title is "Akira Ikegami's News, Oh I got it!".

The themes in this program are easy to watch, as even I know about 60-70% of each themes

Last night's theme was about the contents of recent high school textbooks. I was looking at it quite seriously.

(This is also related to the theme of my next series).

The impression of the program, was

"Ikegami-san. He didn't touch on math, science subjects in general, or programming education, at all"

I've been trying to think of a topic in Mr. Ikegami's past programs that touched on math and science, however I can't remember.

But that's beside the point.

-----

The main character of my favorite novel/anime said,

"The Magazine of 25 Deviations"

and, disrespected a fashion magazine that his sister was reading.

The protagonist of the story is set up as a character who "hates mathematics," and this line alone gives a clear indication of this tendency.

This is because a "magazine with a deviation 25" is not commercially viable.

This is because "25 deviations" is not only an expression of "low intellectual level," but also an expression of "low probability of occurrence.

50 + 10 x Z = 25, Z = -2.5 σ.

If you read this value 0。00621 from the standard normal distribution. the number of buyers of the magazine is 6 out of 1000, at the most optimistic.

In addition, according to the magazine preferences, the radio is probably not even one in a thousand.

A school year has one million students. Half of that is 500,000 female students. 0.1% of that is 500 copies.

Even for junior high school students in grades 1-3, there are 1,500 copies nationwide.

By the way, the number of junior high schools in Japan is about 1,000.

It's clear that a magazine that can't handle an order of 10,000 is not commercially viable.

------

If you can't calculate like that, you can't do any business, even if you are not an engineer like me.

That's what I want Ikegami-san to talk about.

(By the way, this kind of approach is called "Fermi estimation")

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"Your criticism of the ignorance of 'a magazine with about 25 deviations' is a proof of your ignorance"

Hikigaya, you will be disrespected by Yukinoshita.