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2020-04-01 In other words, the new coronavirus has the characteristic of a valet, saying, "they are not interested in small infecting, but they love mass infecting very much" [長年日記]

People who write "I could understand it well. Read this in detail" on SNS, etc.,

probably could not understand it well.

"There is a phrase that "humans can understand when they can explain", however, "

I think

"Humans want to talk to someone when they can explain, even if it's annoying."

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I read the presentation sheets whose title is

"The Concept of measures for COVID-19"

Finally, I understood the significance of the "cluster" and its "eradication strategy"

So please read this in detail"

(The end)

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Well, if I keep it as it is (end), I will try to explain it because someone is likely to be beaten (I have about 2 people).

In conclusion, the new coronavirus is an abnormal virus.

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Basically, the basic reproduction factor (R0) is simply "how many infected people from one person."

If R0 = 2, then "one infected person produces an average of two infected people" and eventually a pandemic (out of control) occurs.

If R0 = 1, then "one infected person produces an average of one infected person", which is not an pandemic but does not eradicate.

If R0 = 0.5, "one infected person will produce an average of 0.5 infected people" which eradicates.

So, we will lose control if R0 > 1, however it is said that the new coronavirus is about R0 = 2.5.

Then, isn't it already finished? ―― you may think, but here the "new coronavirus is abnormal" comes into effect.

In conclusion, the new coronavirus is hardly infected on an individual basis

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(This only explains the contents of the material) If there are five infected people, A, B, C, D, E(Ebata),

There is a tendency that "Only E (Ebata) will infect 12 people at a stretch" even though no secondary infection has occurred from A, B, C, D.

In other words, the new coronavirus has the characteristic of a valet, saying, "they are not interested in small infecting, but they love mass infecting very much"

The result of this “mass infection” is a “cluster”.

In other words, even if we ignore "small Infection", if we completely manage the "mass infection" cluster and continue to destroy each one, we can bring it to R0 <1.

(To be continued)