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2014-05-05 Thus, "the fact marriage is about to 1.9% of the format marriage" [長年日記]

It is a continuation of yesterday.

However, as for the data of the above, I don't know the number of children of single mother and single father.

Although I think that I ask them allowed use without permission data,even the brazen, I would like to say,

Leave the data in the report.

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I can assume the trend of birth rate will be reflected by format marriage generally, so the proportion of legitimate and illegitimate children seems to be same

Now,

legitimate : illegitimate = 97.9% : 2.1%

The balance of birth ratio seems to be same, so the population of extra-format marriage might be also 2.1%.

Well, I tried to calculate roughly the above population from the estimation, The result was 1.38 million.

From here, subtracting the population of single-father and single mother, marriage fact population is 96 thousand people.

The radio of fact marriage population is going to only 0.1%.

It's a strange.

No matter how I look at it, it is too small.

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Given some time, I have noticed my mistake.

I misunderstood that the conditions of illegitimate children.

I had to extract the condition is for only unmarried single mother and father.

This is 15.9% and 12.2%, respectively.

1.382 million - 1.082 million x 0.122 - 0.204 million x 0.159 = 1.218 million

1.218 million / 1.382 million x 2.1% = 1.9%

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Thus, "the fact marriage is about to 1.9% of the format marriage"

In other words, it is likely to result "One of 50 pairs, can be estimated with the fact marriage".