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2021-05-13 I'm not saying that "'only those who can raise the issue before it arises' are allowed to criticize" [長年日記]

The new coronavirus is an unknown infectious disease for which conventional wisdom does not apply.

Cholera, dysentery, and influenza could be easily contained with the measures taken over the past year.

However, this new coronavirus is a pathogen with "unexpected" infectivity and lethality with a question of "What the hell kind of devil manufactured this?"

So, if I were to talk only about this issue, I would say, "Is the government's response really that bad?

If I were a politician, I'm not sure I could take any other measures.

At least, our prime minister is,

(1)not the kind of moron who gets infected right before a presidential election,

(2)not the dictator who is ridiculed by the world for saying things like, "There are no infected people in our country"

(3)not the president who says things like "it's just a cold" and "we're all going to die", like a small-brain animal,

(4)not the president who has ever said, "We have conquered this through prayer," or come up with some crazy theory like, "We don't have coronary infections in our country" because they didn't do PCR testing.

Yeah, when I pick up on it like this, I can clearly see that "politicians with intelligence problems" can be a terrible menace to the people.

-----

Of course, it is true that these politicians and bureaucrats in our country are enraging me(us) and disappointing me (us).

However, I think it is not a good idea to equate their actions with the government's response to the new coronavirus.

Because this new coronavirus is akin to an "all-out attack on humanity by unknown extraterrestrial life forms".

Against such an unknown enemy, there is no way to formulate the "right strategy" from the beginning.

As I wrote here, the vaccines for the new coronaviruses (especially the mRNA vaccine) were made by incredible luck.

-----

I'm not saying that only "'those who can raise the issue before it arises' are allowed to criticize"

Only with regard to this new coronavirus countermeasure, I think we should give some thought to whether or not we can make the same kind of criticism of the previous problems.

-----

By the way,

The representative of the Rikken Democratic Party, Yukio Edano, made a statement that "the worst is the governor of Osaka" (please Google the content to find out).

So, if I may be so bold, I would like to make a suggestion to the Governor of Osaka Prefecture, Hirofumi Yoshimura.

Why don't you make a comment like the following?

"Yes, it is. Osaka may be in a kind of 'meltdown' right now"

"I wish the corona was something that could be predicted by something like the System for Prediction of Effects of Radiation Emergency (SPEEDI)"

"If a politician or chief cabinet secretary does not tell the people about such life-threatening matters as soon as possible, he or she should at least commit suicide by cutting his or her stomach"


2021-05-12 "Because the shock I felt when I saw 'Rurouni Kenshin: Reminiscence version' 10 years ago was too much" [長年日記]

In my diary the other day, I wrote that I could not give a very over-reactionary high evaluation to the movie "Rurouni Kenshin the final".

(For example, is it possible that "Kaoru's corpse" doesn't appear in this story? Or..., yeah, I'll stop it)

Today, I found out the main reason for this and would like to report it to you.

"Because the shock I felt when I saw 'Rurouni Kenshin: Reminiscence version' 10 years ago was too much"

In my mind, the Tomoe version was already locked in this "Reminiscence" version, and my head and body could not deviate even a millimeter from this version.

-----

Incidentally, now, when I have to get into the "zone" to write a paper or patent, I start my dive with this music (link to YouTube).

My family seems to stay away from me when this music is coming from my room.

As for me, I hope this song will be used in the movie.

-----

No,way. the movie "Rurouni Kenshin the beginning" is coming next month.

I am sure that the world of this "Reminiscence" will appear in the last movie of this series.


2021-05-11 After my "unexpected death," I'm terribly worried about whether my wife and daughter will be able to get through this certification and get my money in order. [長年日記]

The other day, I got asked for my Gmail password, and then a page popped up that asked for all sorts of personal information.

"This is weird"

I immediately terminated the process, but the password had already been entered.

I could change my password, but now more than one or two machines have tied to my Gmail.

I thought my password had been stolen by this my mistake.

However, if my Google account is hijacked, I will be severely damaged.

-----

So, this time, I hurriedly decided to add two-step verification to my Google login.

Two-step verification may sound like an ostentatious name, but in essence, it is a system that "Whenever my account is accessed from a new device (PC or smartphone), I can know the fact by voice or message of my home phone (smartphone).

This, psychologically, is quite reassuring.

If there's a login from other's device, the information comes to my phone. So I can immediately know the unauthorized access has occurred.

So far, there is no history of unauthorized access.

Even if you use "two-step verification", it's not perfect (I can imagine how to break this verification (in an old-fashioned analog way)).

-----

Of course, there are other methods of two-step verification besides the above, such as using a token system installed on your phone or a card-type token system to authenticate each time you log in.

This is the default method for financial matters (Bitcoin and online banking).

After my "unexpected death," I'm terribly worried about whether my wife and daughter will be able to get through this certification and get my money in order.

I made a manual, but there is a high probability that they will not be able to find it.

-----

Incidentally,

In Bitcoin, an estimated 4 to 6 million BTC are in storage due to the loss of private keys (digital sequences).

The current conversion rate would be 24 trillion yen to 36 trillion yen.

With a hot wallet, if your private key in the cloud is stolen, you can easily lose all your money and

Even with a cold wallet, if the local hard disk crashes, you won't be able to get all your money out.

I think Bitcoin is scary in that aspect as well.


2021-05-10 While the new coronavirus is raging, which is worse, a restaurant that continues to serve alcohol , or a customer who goes to a restaurant that continues to serve alcohol? [長年日記]

I'm not sure if the term "aided dating" still exists, but in essence it means "prostitution".

Many of us don't really understand what the laws are regarding prostitution, but that's beside the point. Prostitution is basically illegal, but before that, it is considered to be "immoral" nowadays.

But there was a time when prostitution was legal and not immoral. To tell you the truth, in the history of mankind, the era is longer.

"In prostitution, which is worse, the person selling or the person buying?"

This theme will always be talked about, but this is decidedly a "buyer" without argument.

This is because supply cannot exist without demand.

There is no market where there are no buyers.

-----

Now, under the third emergency declaration of the new coronavirus infection, various stores have been forced to shut down their operations.

This can be said to be a forceful act of the state or government.

However, if we refrained from going out, there would be no need for such coercive measures.

On the contrary, stores could even use "absolute infection control" as a selling point to aggressively market their operation.

While the new coronavirus is raging, which is worse, a restaurant that continues to serve alcohol , or a customer who goes to a restaurant that continues to serve alcohol?

This is also not debatable.

It's 100% the customer's fault.

-----

I believe that all stores may be allowed to stay open, and all customers may be allowed to go to these stores without restriction,

with the following two conditions, only.

(1) Always act alone.

That's all.

However, humans are social animals.

We are animals whose survival is guaranteed by being in a herd, which is built into their DNA.

Viruses use this human instinct to herd as a survival strategy.

-----

Now, we are being threatened that

"if we don't refrain from going out, many of us will die without access to medical care"

The current situation is no longer a "threat", but a "reality".

However, we come to take a "So What" attitude.

I believe that by our actions (including myself, of course) for over one years,

"compassion," "mutual aid," and "bonds" are,

if not illusions,

but, can only be activated under limited conditions.

I was able to get the proof of that.

-----

So, from now on, even if a "righteous bastard" appears in front of me, wielding "compassion" and "bonds" and the like, I think that

"I will break it down with this one story"


2021-05-09 "Your criticism of the ignorance of 'a magazine with about 25 deviations' is a proof of your ignorance" [長年日記]

I often watch the TV program whose title is "Akira Ikegami's News, Oh I got it!".

The themes in this program are easy to watch, as even I know about 60-70% of each themes

Last night's theme was about the contents of recent high school textbooks. I was looking at it quite seriously.

(This is also related to the theme of my next series).

The impression of the program, was

"Ikegami-san. He didn't touch on math, science subjects in general, or programming education, at all"

I've been trying to think of a topic in Mr. Ikegami's past programs that touched on math and science, however I can't remember.

But that's beside the point.

-----

The main character of my favorite novel/anime said,

"The Magazine of 25 Deviations"

and, disrespected a fashion magazine that his sister was reading.

The protagonist of the story is set up as a character who "hates mathematics," and this line alone gives a clear indication of this tendency.

This is because a "magazine with a deviation 25" is not commercially viable.

This is because "25 deviations" is not only an expression of "low intellectual level," but also an expression of "low probability of occurrence.

50 + 10 x Z = 25, Z = -2.5 σ.

If you read this value 0。00621 from the standard normal distribution. the number of buyers of the magazine is 6 out of 1000, at the most optimistic.

In addition, according to the magazine preferences, the radio is probably not even one in a thousand.

A school year has one million students. Half of that is 500,000 female students. 0.1% of that is 500 copies.

Even for junior high school students in grades 1-3, there are 1,500 copies nationwide.

By the way, the number of junior high schools in Japan is about 1,000.

It's clear that a magazine that can't handle an order of 10,000 is not commercially viable.

------

If you can't calculate like that, you can't do any business, even if you are not an engineer like me.

That's what I want Ikegami-san to talk about.

(By the way, this kind of approach is called "Fermi estimation")

-----

"Your criticism of the ignorance of 'a magazine with about 25 deviations' is a proof of your ignorance"

Hikigaya, you will be disrespected by Yukinoshita.


2021-05-08 If two vaccinations are given to 126 million people, that's 521,640,000,000 yen. A lot of money, but not a surprising amount of money when I consider the entire national budget. [長年日記]

(Continuation from yesterday)

By the way--

How much do you think this new corona vaccination costs per dose?

I did a little research and found various prices such as 200 yen, 400 yen, 1600 yen, etc. for the cost of the vaccine itself.

If you take out the R&D and manufacturing costs and just consider the real raw material, it would probably be "free" because RNA is just a nucleic acid.

However, there is not much point in talking about such "costs".

I did a little research and found various prices such as 200 yen, 400 yen, 1600 yen, etc. for the cost of the vaccine itself.

The price of vaccines in Japan is 2,070 yen per dose, which includes the cost of medical interview, vaccination site, labor cost of the medical personnel who administer the vaccine, transportation (at very low temperature), anaphylaxis, and insurance for adverse reactions.

It is slightly cheaper than the flu.

The vaccination for the new coronavirus is fully paid for by the government (with our blood tax).

If two vaccinations are given to 126 million people, that's 521,640,000,000 yen. A lot of money, but not a surprising amount of money when I consider the entire national budget.

(I still remember Dr. Shibata's calculation of the cost of PCR testing for the entire population -- "The cost of PCR testing for the entire population: 432 billion yen per test only (less than 2 trillion yen for four tests per year).

It would probably be more cost-effective for our country to have Pfizer sell us the vaccine.

-----

Of course, there is a risk -- a huge risk.

To be honest, a nation that is unable to respond quickly to the "mutant strains" that are about to emerge is in serious trouble.

When I think about it, it is still "scary" if we don't have a system for manufacturing vaccines in Japan, even if we have to pay a license fee for the patent rights.


2021-05-07 It is possible -- but there is nothing that can be done when patent rights are abandoned in poor countries that do not have pharmaceutical manufacturing plants or equipment. [長年日記]

""What do you think, is there any possibility of a future where only COVID-19 related patent rights are opened on a special international basis, and a COVID-19 joint front is developed?"

In the column, I thought that the possibility of

Trips Article 31, "Compulsory License" or Article 93 of the Patent Law, "Ruling on the Establishment of a Non-exclusive License in the Public Interest.

is coming finally.

However, the "temporary abandonment" of the new coronavirus patent in the recent news seems to be different from the "license" story above.

Today, I would like to talk a little bit about "abandonment of patent rights".

-----

It may not seem strange to many people, but the phrase in the news, "temporary abandonment of patent rights," is a strange term.

"What is a "'temporary' abandonment" of patent rights, anyway?"

I believe that this "temporary abandonment" is a misnomer because once a patent right is abandoned, it cannot be regained.

However, patent rights are also effective in each country based on the territorial principle (meaning that they are effective only within the territory and territorial waters of the country).

Therefore, "abandonment of patent rights" can be done on a country-by-country basis.

For example, it is possible to " abandon patent rights only to poor countries."

It is possible -- but there is nothing that can be done when patent rights are abandoned in poor countries that do not have pharmaceutical manufacturing plants or equipment.

This is because the country does not have the means to produce the vaccine.

-----

Anyway, I don't really understand this "abandonment of patent rights for the Corona vaccine".

I'll have to look it up again and come back.

(To be continued)


2021-05-06 "Ebata Family Fact Checking System" [長年日記]

This season's anime, "ODD TAXI," is a tremendously educational content.

(1) The value of "being able to create messages that get buzz on social networking sites"

(2) The system of "paying endlessly (in the order of millions of yen) to obtain rare items in online games"

-----

In particular, "infinite billing" in (2) above is the subject of my writing in this column.

"To purchase virtual real estate (land) in the net game for 150,000 yen"

I was finally able to understand the process of creating the value.

To be honest, I felt a chill run down my spine.

-----

As for (1) above, "buzz value," I was quite surprised to learn that it has become a parameter recognized by society, affecting not only the desire for self-approval, but also job hunting and marriage activities.

When I told that story to my junior daughter. she said

"Well, some things are parameters, but not all"

-----

In this way, I get what I don't know from the media (anime, etc.) and then correct it with the opinions of my family (my second daughter, etc.), which is so called,

"Ebata Family Fact Checking System"

is supporting the quality of my columns


2021-05-05 Is that me? Who made him what he is ? It is me ? [長年日記]

I have many scary memories, and this is one of those stories.

-----

I think it was around the time I started college.

Friend: "Like you said, I'm trying to think a lot about social issues right now.

Ebata: "Oh. What kind?

Friend: "No, I was walking around town and I got solicited. What can I say, I'm attending a meeting about those issues"

Ebata: "What...?"

Friend: "God? I saw a video that said, "I need to start believing in God, or something like that. I think I come to understand what you said"

-----

There is a saying "I was turning white"

At that moment, I experienced those words for the first time in my life.

Is that me? Who made him what he is ? It is me ?

-----

After that,

"What I want to say is not that, but that you should read newspapers, read books, listen to the opinions of people who agree and disagree with you, and finally think for yourself..."

I kept trying to persuade him.

Anyway, in case you don't know what I'm talking about right now, but, can you please stop going to those meetings again?

If you're going to that meeting, I'll never see you again.

"Right here, right now, you can accept me or not"

I pressed him to be prepared.

He seemed to understand only that 'Ebata was talking about something very honest and serious.

It was also fortunate that he hadn't been attending many meetings yet, so the subject never came up with us again.

-----

I believe that the idea that "all means and ideas that try to solve the world's problems at once are somehow wrong" is "not wrong".

The other day, I counted the essays I have contributed to EE Times Japan and found out that I have contributed at least 139 essays in the last 8 years.

If there was only one way or idea that could solve the problem, then my 139 columns would have been unnecessary.


2021-05-04 I am now on the verge of becoming what is called an "original kitchen", an abomination. [長年日記]

I went to see "Rurouni Kenshin the final".

It was a very enjoyable movie.

However, in a discussion with my senior daughter after watching the movie,

I am now on the verge of becoming what is called an "original kitchen", an abomination.

I'd like to refrain from giving my impressions.

-----

It's been a while since I've watched a movie, but what impressed me the most was

This was the trailer for the movie "Hell's Garden".

I like the "Shimotsuma Monogatari" style.

-----

Incidentally, I saw "Live-action Rurouni Kenshin" on the flight back from London and "Shimotsuma Monogatari" on the flight back from Singapore.

It seems that the start of my boom often begins with airplanes.