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2024-03-13 At any rate, the reference value for the birth rate is not "1.0", But "2.08". [長年日記]

I was surprised to read some of the reader comments on my column.

This means that some people misinterpret the concept of the fertility rate (special fertility rate).

The birth rate needed to maintain the current population is "2.08".

This means that 2.08 people from one male-female couple (married or unmarried) in a country can give birth, i.e., 2 + α, which is equal.

Some people seem to think this is based on "1.0."

This is a terrible misunderstanding.

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It is a big mistake to say, "Korea is at 0.72, but Japan is at 1.20.

If the birth rate that can sustain a population is expressed in a 100-point test,

South Korea: 48 points (out of 187 countries, lowest in the world)

Japan: 57 points (10th from the bottom out of 187 countries)

Incidentally,

Afghanistan: 228 points (17th from the top out of 187 countries)

Afghanistan is enrolled in the best-selected class, and we (and everyone else in Korea) are in the required remedial class.

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Of course, a high birth rate does not mean everything is O.K. (infant mortality and other factors must be considered).

Incidentally (as you may be tired of hearing by now), the ranking of women's status in Japan is at about the same level as that of Afghanistan.

So I think it is very likely that (some) people in Afghanistan see us as, at least, we are winners against Japan.

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At any rate, the reference value for the birth rate is not "1.0."

But "2.08".

Thank you very much for your understanding and cooperation.