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2023-09-16 We will continue to "miss" future predictions.repl [長年日記]

I also do "writer," writing columns with numbers.

I try not to "use" the latest news when using media news.

I do not start writing about current news until it has been summarized (e.g., aired as an NHK special).

Articles that are arbitrary, emotional, and inductive are not compatible with the numbers -- there are too many inconsistencies.

Also, the calculations are time-consuming and, in the first place, because only bits and pieces of information are available to give a complete picture. The bottom line is, "I can't write."

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Well, I have made many predictions, but many have "missed" as well.

I believe that is something that cannot be helped.

The future is a mixture of various unpredictable factors.

It is, well, impossible to consider them all and make predictions.

All I can do is plug in the past data and predict future points in the extension.

However, I have been and will continue to be forthcoming about what I consider "off" in my columns.

I don't know what others think, but it is not "shameful" for me.

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In light of the above, I would expect those who have discussed the following issues to summarize them now.

- Those who claimed that the TPP would bankrupt our economy.

- Those who have argued that global warming is an illusion (or a conspiracy by governments)

I do not mean to be rude, saying that they should change their assertions or self-criticize. I want to ask them to

(1)Organize the current status at this time

(2)Changes from the original claim

(3) Further future projections

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We will continue to "miss" future predictions.

What is important are,

(A) Identification of "what was missed" and

(B) "Reasons for the missed" and

(C) "Reasons for the removal" are to be examined regularly,

I believe that this is the most essential part of the process.

Well, this is what we call an 'engineering approach.'