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2023-06-28 Ten billion yen, ten years, and human resources can be turned into garbage instantly" -- herein lies the fear of innovation. [長年日記]

Suppose a national project took ten years and cost 10 billion yen, and 80% of the development had been completed.

Then, suddenly, a new technology appears that can triple the effectiveness of the current project with a budget of about 0.5 billion yen (50 million yen) and within one month of development

This happens quite often in the world of technology.

Ten billion yen, ten years, and human resources can be turned into garbage instantly" -- herein lies the fear of innovation.

(This is different from the "innovation dilemma.)

Moreover, such innovations cannot be predicted to emerge.

Yeah, I can't predict it at all anymore.

For example, no one, as far as I know, predicted the 'emergence of generative AI and its impact on society' this time last year.

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Something similar happens to me, although the scale and subject matter differ.

Just after I had finished writing a report that concluded that I had exhausted all possible methods, working day and night, and had come to the conclusion that "it was hopeless,"

I am confronted with a situation where "a method I tried on a whim solved the problem instantly.

This is, of course, a "happy story" for an engineer but an "unhappy story" for a businessman.

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It is no wonder that society is at the mercy of innovation.

But more than that, the engineers on the front lines of the invention cannot say, "It cannot be helped."

Honesty, I want to shout

"No kidding!"