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2021-12-09 "if you say something nobody knows in the future, you'll be embarrassed later" [長年日記]

There are many people who say, "We don't need 5G," but you should be careful.

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"An 8-bit computer is good enough, what kind of game needs a 16-bit computer?"

"What the hell do you expect to see with more than 640x320 pixels?"

"What would you store on a 40MB (note the units) hard drive?"

"What are you going to do with over a hundred pages of text on a 500KB (note the units) memory board?"

"Where would I need anything more than a 300pbs ultrafast modem?"

I couldn't answer the question at the time when it was posed to me.

I couldn't even imagine a future where audio and video would be carried by computers.

The word "smartphone" made no sense at all.

Of course, I can answer all of the above now.

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This is the same from "Why do we cook rice with electricity? to "What is the point of traveling from Tokyo to Osaka in three hours?

It goes back to this story that is "Letters are engraved on wood pipes, how can they be recorded on paper, which is squishy and unsustainable?"

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In other words, "applications and services drive the infrastructure" is mistaken.

From the perspective of my life as an IT engineer, this is "absolutely wrong".

The correct answer is, "Once the infrastructure is built, there will always be applications and services that use it up.

Carelessly. you don't have to say

"We don't need 5G."

At the moment, I can't imagine any services or applications using 5G either, but I can assure you that

"if you say something nobody knows in the future, you'll be embarrassed later"