Most of the numbers I have in my head regarding COVID-19 are in this column.
According to data from the Diamond Princess,
- Chance of infection: 20%
- Chance of death of an infected person: 2%
So,
I think that my mortality rate from COVID-19, in the normal range of life, is
"0.4% (4 in 1,000) + alpha (taking into account age)
On the other hand,
- the mortality rate for those infected with influenza is (in my age group) 0.01% (*)
So,
On the basis of one flu death, COVID-19 will kill 20 people.
And it's not off the mark to think
Moreover, it is a disgusting virus that can rapidly and drastically change human condition and cause considerable and terrible suffering to humans.
This is because the virus (any virus) has a survival strategy of trying to spread the infection by inflicting terrible suffering on humans for as long as possible, and by gathering people (doctors, nurses) to treat them as much as possible.
After all this time, I am reminded that "new corona virus = killer virus".
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"The mortality rate from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is 7.5%"
When I saw this phrase in the newspaper, I was pale.
- "7.5%" instead of "0.4% (mortality in daily life)" or "2% (mortality after infection)"?
- What does that mean?
- What's the population size?
- I don't care if it is lower than the West!
To tell you the truth, I was upset.
- If you're infected and hospitalized, one out of ten times I won't make it out alive?
===== News article from here =====
The National Center for Global Health and Medicine analyzed the course of 2,638 hospitalized patients from March to early July 2020. At the time of admission, 68.1%, or 1,796 people were in mild or moderate condition. 840 people, or 31.9%, were seriously ill.
There were 197 hospital admissions, or 7.5% of all deaths, which is significantly less than in the UK and the US, where the mortality rate is over 20%.
===== News article (to here) =====
197 patients ÷ 0.075 = 2,626.66, which clearly indicates that the population of this data represents "2,638 inpatients".
So, if the COVID-19 makes you an "inpatient" instead of an "overnight care for minor illnesses",
"One out of ten (13 to be exact) won't make it out alive."
seems to be a fact.
And in the West.
"One out of five may not make it out alive"
"COVID-19 is a disease with an extremely high mortality rate"
I reaffirm the fact that, and I am pale once again.
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Here's my personal opinion.
If your child and you with an unconscious infected, are going home to your parents, your old parents infected, sick, hospitalized, and your old parents won't return to the hospital.
I can see the "flow" of this.
"7.5%"
This number give me a strong sense of that reality.
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I was the one who killed my own parents with my own hands, however,
The fewer people who have to live with these sense, the better it is, I think.